Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Virginia 94.2%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 6 13 - 5 +18.8      +7.9 18 +10.9 1 53.2 353 0.0 1 0.0 1
4 Duke 92.9%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +18.3      +12.0 2 +6.3 18 73.2 73 0.0 1 0.0 1
6 North Carolina 93.2%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +17.9      +11.7 4 +6.1 21 74.9 53 0.0 1 0.0 1
12 Syracuse 81.3%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +15.1      +6.4 36 +8.7 2 60.7 344 0.0 1 0.0 1
15 Florida St. 76.1%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +14.1      +8.5 13 +5.6 27 77.0 28 0.0 1 0.0 1
18 Clemson 71.5%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +13.4      +6.4 37 +7.0 10 64.5 291 0.0 1 0.0 1
20 Virginia Tech 68.9%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +13.4      +9.1 11 +4.3 52 70.8 129 0.0 1 0.0 1
23 Miami (FL) 62.3%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +13.0      +7.3 24 +5.7 25 66.8 235 0.0 1 0.0 1
38 North Carolina St. 42.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 9 - 9 +10.7      +8.4 14 +2.3 102 75.7 42 0.0 1 0.0 1
49 Notre Dame 37.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +9.7      +6.3 38 +3.4 72 63.0 320 0.0 1 0.0 1
54 Louisville 38.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 10 +9.1      +5.1 53 +4.0 58 72.1 95 0.0 1 0.0 1
78 Boston College 19.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 6 - 12 +6.7      +4.0 75 +2.8 92 73.0 80 0.0 1 0.0 1
113 Georgia Tech 6.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 5 - 13 +3.6      -0.8 192 +4.4 50 64.8 287 0.0 1 0.0 1
115 Wake Forest 6.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 5 - 13 +3.5      +2.3 106 +1.2 130 71.8 103 0.0 1 0.0 1
167 Pittsburgh 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 20 3 - 15 -0.2      -1.6 215 +1.4 125 64.3 300 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia 3.7 25.7 18.6 13.7 10.9 8.5 6.4 4.8 3.9 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1
Duke 4.0 24.1 16.3 12.9 10.9 9.3 7.9 5.7 4.5 3.1 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
North Carolina 3.8 26.0 17.7 13.3 10.2 8.1 6.4 5.2 3.9 3.3 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Syracuse 5.2 12.8 12.4 12.2 11.1 10.1 9.0 7.9 7.3 5.7 4.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2
Florida St. 5.6 10.5 11.2 10.3 11.4 10.3 9.8 8.2 7.8 6.6 5.1 3.6 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.3
Clemson 6.0 8.1 10.1 10.0 9.7 10.1 8.9 9.3 8.2 7.0 7.1 4.8 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.4
Virginia Tech 6.3 7.3 8.2 8.8 9.7 9.6 10.0 9.9 8.8 8.0 6.8 5.3 3.6 2.3 1.0 0.6
Miami (FL) 6.7 5.7 7.3 8.1 8.8 8.9 9.8 9.8 9.2 8.7 8.0 6.6 4.2 2.9 1.6 0.4
North Carolina St. 7.5 3.7 5.0 6.6 7.5 8.2 9.3 9.3 10.4 9.1 9.1 8.0 6.3 4.0 2.4 1.2
Notre Dame 8.4 2.2 3.2 4.4 5.5 6.8 7.5 9.0 9.2 10.3 10.4 10.2 8.8 6.6 4.0 1.8
Louisville 8.7 2.0 2.6 3.7 5.0 6.0 7.1 8.6 9.1 10.4 10.8 11.0 9.7 6.8 4.4 2.7
Boston College 10.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.5 3.6 4.5 5.2 6.9 9.0 10.1 11.8 13.8 13.2 10.5 5.3
Georgia Tech 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.7 4.0 5.1 7.9 10.6 15.5 18.8 18.6 12.2
Wake Forest 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.2 5.2 7.0 10.0 14.1 18.9 20.6 14.5
Pittsburgh 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.1 3.3 5.1 9.3 14.3 22.9 39.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.5 5.3 7.2 10.2 12.4 14.2 13.9 12.9 9.4 5.4 1.8
Duke 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.3 3.9 6.2 8.8 11.2 12.7 13.5 13.5 11.3 8.2 4.3 1.7
North Carolina 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.7 3.6 5.3 7.7 10.0 11.4 13.8 13.7 11.9 10.1 5.4 1.6
Syracuse 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.7 7.4 9.3 10.9 12.0 13.2 12.4 9.8 7.0 4.5 2.1 0.6
Florida St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.5 5.8 8.1 9.8 11.8 12.6 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.1 3.9 1.7 0.3
Clemson 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.9 7.2 9.4 10.4 12.3 11.6 11.4 9.9 8.4 5.1 2.7 1.0 0.3
Virginia Tech 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.2 7.1 9.9 11.9 12.7 12.0 11.8 8.5 6.4 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.2
Miami (FL) 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.3 9.1 10.5 11.4 12.4 12.1 10.4 8.1 5.9 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.2
North Carolina St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.5 8.2 10.1 11.4 11.9 12.4 10.9 8.8 6.0 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1
Notre Dame 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 5.5 8.0 10.7 11.8 12.0 12.0 10.2 8.5 6.6 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisville 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.8 6.4 9.0 11.1 12.1 11.8 11.6 10.2 8.0 5.8 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Boston College 6 - 12 0.7 2.5 5.5 8.6 11.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 10.3 8.1 6.4 4.1 2.8 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 1.6 5.9 10.9 14.5 15.0 14.7 12.4 9.0 6.3 4.3 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 5 - 13 2.6 7.4 12.2 15.3 15.2 14.0 10.8 8.6 5.8 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 3 - 15 10.6 17.7 19.2 16.3 12.8 9.0 6.1 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia 25.7% 16.0 7.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duke 24.1% 15.5 6.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 26.0% 16.9 7.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 12.8% 7.3 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 10.5% 5.7 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Clemson 8.1% 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 7.3% 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 5.7% 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 3.7% 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 2.2% 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia 94.2% 17.8% 76.3% 2   26.7 19.8 13.8 10.4 7.5 5.1 3.3 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 92.9%
Duke 92.9% 16.8% 76.2% 1   29.1 19.6 12.5 9.5 6.7 5.5 3.3 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 91.5%
North Carolina 93.2% 15.8% 77.5% 1   29.8 20.3 12.0 9.2 6.4 4.6 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 92.0%
Syracuse 81.3% 9.5% 71.9% 4   9.7 10.1 9.7 9.3 8.4 6.4 6.7 5.8 5.6 5.0 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.7 79.4%
Florida St. 76.1% 7.7% 68.4% 5   7.8 8.5 8.6 9.0 7.7 7.3 6.4 6.2 5.2 5.0 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 23.9 74.1%
Clemson 71.5% 6.3% 65.2% 6   5.8 7.1 7.5 7.8 7.7 6.8 6.9 6.2 5.3 5.0 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 28.5 69.6%
Virginia Tech 68.9% 6.6% 62.2% 6   5.2 6.0 6.7 7.8 7.2 7.5 7.2 6.3 5.3 4.7 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 31.1 66.7%
Miami (FL) 62.3% 6.4% 55.9% 9   2.9 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.9 4.5 7.0 6.3 7.2 6.0 5.9 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 37.7 59.7%
North Carolina St. 42.2% 4.0% 38.2% 1.0 1.4 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.1 4.7 4.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 57.8 39.8%
Notre Dame 37.3% 3.1% 34.2% 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.8 2.9 4.1 4.3 5.0 4.9 5.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 62.7 35.3%
Louisville 38.6% 2.6% 36.0% 1.1 2.0 3.4 3.8 4.9 5.4 4.5 4.5 3.4 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 61.4 36.9%
Boston College 19.7% 1.4% 18.3% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 80.3 18.6%
Georgia Tech 6.9% 0.8% 6.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 93.1 6.1%
Wake Forest 6.3% 0.7% 5.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 93.7 5.6%
Pittsburgh 1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.6 1.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia 94.2% 0.8% 93.9% 81.7% 58.2% 37.3% 22.7% 13.3% 7.4%
Duke 92.9% 0.8% 92.6% 80.1% 56.3% 35.9% 20.9% 12.1% 6.5%
North Carolina 93.2% 0.6% 93.1% 80.5% 55.5% 35.1% 20.3% 11.8% 6.3%
Syracuse 81.3% 3.6% 79.8% 59.9% 35.5% 19.3% 9.7% 4.8% 2.2%
Florida St. 76.1% 3.3% 74.7% 53.5% 30.2% 15.6% 7.7% 3.6% 1.9%
Clemson 71.5% 4.2% 69.3% 48.5% 24.7% 13.1% 6.4% 2.8% 1.1%
Virginia Tech 68.9% 3.6% 67.2% 47.5% 25.1% 12.4% 5.9% 2.8% 1.2%
Miami (FL) 62.3% 6.0% 59.4% 39.8% 20.1% 10.3% 5.0% 2.3% 1.0%
North Carolina St. 42.2% 4.9% 39.9% 24.5% 11.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Notre Dame 37.3% 5.4% 34.7% 20.9% 9.1% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Louisville 38.6% 2.3% 37.6% 23.1% 9.9% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Boston College 19.7% 4.0% 17.7% 8.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 6.9% 1.3% 6.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 6.3% 1.6% 5.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.9 0.0 0.3 1.9 9.3 24.5 32.1 23.1 7.5 1.3 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.7 0.0 0.4 2.9 12.2 26.7 31.5 19.7 5.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.7 0.1 0.6 3.6 13.1 25.7 28.2 19.4 7.5 1.6 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.5% 3.4 0.5 4.7 18.0 30.6 28.0 13.8 3.8 0.4 0.1
Elite Eight 92.9% 1.9 7.1 27.2 37.4 21.8 5.7 0.6 0.1
Final Four 73.3% 1.0 26.7 46.3 22.8 4.1 0.1
Final Game 49.3% 0.6 50.7 42.8 6.5
Champion 28.6% 0.3 71.4 28.6